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Tuesday, April 01, 01:04:40am [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4 ]

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Date Posted: Wednesday, March 26, 10:54:37am
Author: Same Old Story
Author Host/IP: webdefence-pool-02.cluster-lonb.forcepoint.net / 85.115.53.202
Subject: FAO : Hammersmithender re HE vs PE stats

Apologies for the new post in response, couldn't fit in a reply, and the spacing required in an 'inside' message made the format really awkward,
714 home games in the period i'm covering, of which i'm reasonably confident 102 we were towards HE first half 597 towards HE with 15 not confident on direction.
So, say 102/699 = 14.6% of the time.
Of those 102, we have a W/L/D split of W - 39%, D - 30%, L - 31%
Of the 597 towards the Hammersmith End first half, we have a W/L/D split of - W - 46%, D - 25%, L - 29%.
So looking at those, we seem slightly more likely to win, if we kick off towards the Putney End in the first half, slightly less likely to draw, and then fractionally less likely to lose.
There would then be other factors which muddy this a bit.
- Figures include covid seasons. If you remove these, it improves both W rates as we were utter shite during Covid.
- Figures include premier league season where there was no away end - away fans were positioned down the side of the JH.
- The Putney End has fluxxed in terms of the makeup - some games its been Home and away, some games its been just away, others has contained a 'neutral' section. I haven't factored this in at all as there is no data source to enable me to do so. In short, it seems we do slightly better attacking the Putney end first half, not dramatically, but enough over a large enough sample to suggest its worth a point or two per season.

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