Reply inside -- SW6.doc

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Thursday, April 17, 04:15:35pm [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4 ]

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Date Posted: Friday, April 04, 03:01:34pm
Author: Henry1879
Author Host/IP: 94.196.33.37.threembb.co.uk / 94.196.33.37
Subject: Reply inside
In reply to: eganonoa 's message, "Congrats, you've identified the reasons we shouldn't take up this strategy. "[A]ll clubs" are doing it leaving a gap in the mid-20s reclamations we're good at; big clubs "can afford who they want" and get the best young talent, the one smaller club best at it is owned by professional "spreadbett[ers]", & football is "dictated by accounts". Money is typically made in markets by specialists identifying undervalued assets, not by blind followers copying the trend. We should stick to our niche." on Thursday, April 03, 10:46:52pm

This isn’t M&A, where you can add value, players automatically lose value as they get older, it’s not comparable, just because others do it doesn’t mean it’s good to be different. I bet we adapt our strategy, because we can’t afford to have another summer like the last, the money as lost on our accounts will be too much and we don’t have an obvious big sale. Khans want to be sustainable, keep buying players who lose money over time is not sustainable, it isn’t a question of what you’d like us to do, it’s what we will have to do because the rules dictate that. City, CFC never used to buy best young talent, they’d buy the best ready made talent, rules have changed now they don’t. Why is CPFC such a mess by the way?

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Replies:

You have missed the point. Please re-read & reflect. I'm not arguing what I want, I'm describing what I believe is our club's rationale. To reiterate & sign off: there are many ways to find value; when the majority focus on one asset (here, young players) prices rise sucking the value out. I believe the club sees this happening, is trying to chart its own course & thinks our resale pipeline (Robinson, Andreas, Bassey, Lukic, Sess, Cuenca, Muniz, Berge, ESR, maybe Wilson) sufficient. I agree (NT) -- eganonoa, Friday, April 04, 03:51:26pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
- Beyond the speculative future pipeline (which is ultimately speculative for all and contingent on luck, injuries and good coaching) there is also some data that can point to the club's strategy as being economically efficient today. For instance, transfermarkt's "cost per point" analysis which argues that our squad is the 2nd most cost-efficient squad in the league (links inside). Again, as I say, there are many ways to cook an egg. -- eganonoa, Friday, April 04, 04:03:42pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
  - Unfortunately you lost me at the transfer market, I can’t think I know a more worthless website/source. If has Josh king worth 1m, Muniz at €20m, tete (with 6 months of his contract) at €10m, I don’t know how they decide their numbers, but I’ve seen more economic logic on a Donald trump tariff chart. (NT) -- Henry1879, Friday, April 04, 04:35:51pm (94.196.33.37.threembb.co.uk/94.196.33.37)
    - I've had this discussion on here several times. I literally know someone who helped write the algorithms for that website. It's all based on a very loose 'time remaining' vs 'percieved value' vs 'net salary' formula. It takes absolutely no account of clubs need/desire to sell, contract clauses, interest from other times etc - all of which are significant when setting value. As you surmise, when it comes to anything to do with valuations, its essentially worthless. (NT) -- Same Old Story, Friday, April 04, 04:59:40pm (NoHost/81.79.75.149)
      - Analysis based on purchase price, not their algorithm of current value. It's purchase price divided by points. I'm pretty sure they source their purchase price data from publicly available sources and it's pretty decent (or as decent as exists). Have a look through the last few seasons (link inside) and see how many you reckon are miles off. And again, just one metric of analysis of our current transfer strategy. At least more accurate that subjective perceived future player value -- eganonoa, Friday, April 04, 05:10:44pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)
        Apologies, i had been reading the argument above as 'value', not purchase price. (NT) -- Same Old Story, Monday, April 07, 09:49:57am (NoHost/81.79.75.149)
    - Good that I "lost [you] at transfermarkt" given that that was a side point made after my main one. Presume that means you finally understand basic market economics. Good. On that side point, the analysis is not based on their speculation of current squad worth, but how much each player was purchased for. It's generally decent at that. Total cost of all players divided points = how much was spent per point. We're 2nd best on that metric. Not exactly so complicated as to get lost in I should hope (NT) -- eganonoa, Friday, April 04, 05:05:04pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)

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