Yeah, I badly worded it. Basically, regular expected goals looks at the situation of the shot in its totality (defense, goalie, shot position, etc). But this one looks at the "post shot" expected goal. So imagine there's someone watching. The observer sees the shot go off and after the shot is off decides whether that should likely result in a goal unless the keeper makes a save. It's not great. But it does seem to pass the eye test when we think about shots we think should have been saved. -- SW6.doc

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Date Posted: Friday, May 09, 06:20:28pm
Author: eganonoa
Author Host/IP: pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net / 108.18.149.21
Subject: Yeah, I badly worded it. Basically, regular expected goals looks at the situation of the shot in its totality (defense, goalie, shot position, etc). But this one looks at the "post shot" expected goal. So imagine there's someone watching. The observer sees the shot go off and after the shot is off decides whether that should likely result in a goal unless the keeper makes a save. It's not great. But it does seem to pass the eye test when we think about shots we think should have been saved.
In reply to: FF 's message, "The first stat is difficult to get me head around, is it expected goals - actual goals? Not a massive stats evangelist anyway but surely there is more at play than just the keeper? I think it’s easy to get carried away with stats as just up and selling our very solid keeper is reckless even if there is room for improvement" on Friday, May 09, 05:58:02pm

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And I think its the eye test and stats together that makes me think its time to replace him. I remember last season being really worried that he looked unusually flappy on crosses. This season, I think we've all been concerned about his difficulty with saving longer shots. The stats seem to say that what we're seeing with our eyes isn't just a phantom of our own subjectivity, but is real (plus the sweeper stuff). Every player has a sell-by date. Possible Leno's has arrived? (NT) -- eganonoa, Friday, May 09, 06:24:48pm (pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net/108.18.149.21)

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