Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 12:11:01 03/26/24 Tue
Lurker, you are correct in that coaches have been grossly overpaid in the sense that they run a medium-sized business on campus which (a) for the vast majority of programs, receives college resources and attention far in excess of what their business could justify on the basis of revenues or profits; and (b) historically relied on labor which was paid on a non-cash basis.
If your social goal is to start overpaying the players, too, I have good news for you. The vast majority of them are about to get overpaid relative to their ability to generate revenues or profits and way WAY overpaid relative to their basketball (or football) abilities.
Prior to the introduction of NFL rookie contracts, who were the most overpaid athletes in professional football? Rookies.
Rookies were overpaid because they were paid on the basis of potential. As we see time and time again, from Ryan Leaf to Tom Brady, potential is very difficult to judge. Xaivian Lee only received one Division I offer, from the guys who play inside Jadwin Gym.
NFL teams could not help themselves from overpaying when evaluating potential. Rookies were paid far in excess of the probabilistic likelihood that they could actually help their team win football games.
It got so bad that the NFL owners decided that they had to collude to prevent themselves from overpaying and it was so bad that the players union **AGREED** to it.
The rookies were so overpaid that their own players union agreed, "Yeah, this is egregious and has to stop. The rookies are taking money which should be paid to the veterans." Hence, the implementation of the NFL rookie contract which is the most outrageous monopsonistic wage-limiting device in American labor. It's hard to believe that Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders haven't tried to outlaw it.
Well, college athletes are recruited on the basis mostly on the basis of potential. Judging potential for college freshmen is much more difficult than judging potential for NFL rookies. The evaluation of potential will be, on average, even more incorrect with the skew to the upside, not the downside. Xaivian Lee will be the exception, not the rule. College boosters, just like NFL owners, will rapidly bid up the prices for incoming freshman athletes far in excess of their true underlying value.
This will filter down to American high schools and junior high schools and, I've said many times over the last couple of years, ensure the lack of progress for the American economic and social underclass.
Check back in a few years. While the rest of America will continue on the incredible eight-decade run of prosperity and progress since World War II, the primary feeder class of great athletes to the NFL and NBA will be have been stagnant economically. And one important contributing reason will have been when we started paying college athletes in 2023. Shame on us as a society. And shame on any fans in favor of paying college athletes.
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