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Subject: Re: Two-point conversions - fun analytics? Author: observer [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ] Date Posted: 11:31:55 09/22/24 Sun In reply to: Northbounder 's message, "Re: Two-point conversions - fun analytics?" on 09:55:19 09/22/24 Sun Analytics measured in gross sample sizes don't account for true probabilities across many various levels of a sport. Nor does it account for field conditions, weather, practice time/repetitions, fitness, skill set variability, etc. It doesn't make sense to sacrifice bunt at the MLB level. At the NCAA level, the ability of infielders to react and execute is less competent than minor league ball. At high school, even more so, and in little league... Same goes for FG/XP conversions. NFL kickers are now nearly automatic. FBS kickers less so. FCS kickers, etc. etc. The high school coach who never punted never made his philosophy work at a higher level. Many sports data analytics-minded folks have forgotten another STEM principle that affects sports results: entropy. There's a reason why state governments have permitted sports gambling by phone, and companies are competing hand over fist to get licensed by the state lottery orgs. The vigorish is too good, and the "true probabilities" are unknown to armchair quarterbacks. [ Next Thread | Previous Thread | Next Message | Previous Message ]

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[> [> [> Subject: Re: Two-point conversions - fun analytics? Author: Northbounder [ Edit | View ] Date Posted: 20:49:01 09/22/24 Sun I agree fully that skill determines strategy. What a high school coach sees in a graphic during a broadcast on a Sunday should not dictate his own thinking. What may lead to success on Friday nights is only intriguing to Presbyterian College administrators until it stops working on Saturdays in Clinton, South Carolina. I disagree with your last graf. Your conclusion seems to be that the retail gambler fails because non-measurable factors influence outcomes beyond his ability to account for them. My impression is that the retail gambler fails because he has markedly less data relating to measurable factors than the institutional gambler. With that data, purchased at and thus valued at vast sums, the institution can then develop much more accurate estimates of the "true probabilities" – and in turn to set terms of wagering favorable to itself. I don't mean to suggest data solves or determine all — far from it. But were there no value, you wouldn't see the investment — not just from books but from teams and programs themselves. [ Post a Reply to This Message ]