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Subject: Re: Two-point conversions - fun analytics?


Author:
Northbounder
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Date Posted: 20:49:01 09/22/24 Sun
In reply to: observer 's message, "Re: Two-point conversions - fun analytics?" on 11:31:55 09/22/24 Sun
 I agree fully that skill determines strategy. What a high school coach sees in a graphic during a broadcast on a Sunday should not dictate his own thinking. What may lead to success on Friday nights is only intriguing to Presbyterian College administrators until it stops working on Saturdays in Clinton, South Carolina.

I disagree with your last graf. Your conclusion seems to be that the retail gambler fails because non-measurable factors influence outcomes beyond his ability to account for them. My impression is that the retail gambler fails because he has markedly less data relating to measurable factors than the institutional gambler. With that data, purchased at and thus valued at vast sums, the institution can then develop much more accurate estimates of the "true probabilities" – and in turn to set terms of wagering favorable to itself.

I don't mean to suggest data solves or determine all — far from it. But were there no value, you wouldn't see the investment — not just from books but from teams and programs themselves.
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