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Subject: Re: Why Going For Two Points When Down 8 Works, Mathematically


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 16:23:13 09/23/24 Mon
In reply to: An Observer 's message, "Why Going For Two Points When Down 8 Works, Mathematically" on 14:32:11 09/23/24 Mon
 Northbounder, now that I've reached my own conclusion as to not just HOW going for two works, but *WHY*, I'm consulting with my old friend Mr Google.

According to one article which takes a very mathematical approach to this decision, during the 2015 and 2016 seasons, not a single NFL coach went for two points with his team down by eight in the fourth quarter. Not a single one. No idea how large the sample size was.

Fascinatingly, if your team scores a touchdown to trail by ONE, this analysis says KICK and play for overtime if the opponent will have time for any meaningful drive (that is, not mere seconds). Turning your opponent loose down by one after your successful MAKE is apparently a bad outcome for you. When a desperate team is driving with nothing to lose and needing only a field goal to win, guess what? They succeed a lot.

You're better off with the KICK and forcing your opponent fear making a mistake and missing out on overtime.
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