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Subject: Tony Romo's Analysis


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 19:53:36 09/29/24 Sun
In reply to: An Observer 's message, "Numbers, Numbers, Numbers. I Love Numbers." on 15:08:35 09/22/24 Sun

Jim Nantz after today's Chiefs 17-10 comeback victory over the Chargers: "When Patrick Mahomes is down 10 points -- exactly 10 points, not 9, not 11 -- in his career, he is 12-0. What can we take away from that?"

Tony Romo: "The first thing to take away is that you should go for two the first time you score a touchdown."

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Replies:
[> [> [> Subject: What's the proper play call when...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 10:45:00 09/30/24 Mon


... you're up 40-23 with a minute to go in the game, and you're facing fourth and six on your opponent's twelve yard line?

If you're Dan Swanstrom, the answer is throw a pass to the end zone to go up 47-23.

:)

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: What's the proper play call when...


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 11:20:41 09/30/24 Mon

At least he didn't go for two.

Seriously, I don't think Swanstrom is going to get a Christmas card from Tony Reno this year, but I'm okay with not taking a knee on fourth down. And if you're not going to take a knee, what's the difference between running the ball and throwing into the end zone?

The "go for two" decision charts don't cover being up 23 with a minute to go, nor do they typically cover being down by 21 in the third quarter.

Did you see the Georgia-Alabama game? Georgia trailed 30-3 at half time and then scored a touchdown about five minutes into the third quarter to cut it to 30-9. Kirby Smart immediately started going for two. I'd like to see what the analytics number crunchers have to say about that.

Anyway, Georgia clawed their way all the way back to take the lead 34-33, when they continued their streak of going for two, this time for good reason, of course. Will be tough to top this game in 2024.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: What's the proper play call when...


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 13:10:51 09/30/24 Mon


I didn't watch Yale-Cornell. I was just going through the write-ups and box scores. I have no idea if it was a chippy game and Cornell wanted to stick it to Yale.

Not likely that Reno refused to lend Swanstrom equipment (like, oh say... a kicking tee). The game was in Ithaca so Cornell should have had everything handy.

I didn't see Georgia-Alabama. But I did see Minnesota-Green Bay which pretty much went down in the same fashion.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: What's the proper play call when...


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 13:30:02 09/30/24 Mon

I don't think that it's Tony Romo's job to make friends among other coaches in the Ivy League, but I can think of at least a couple other Ivy head coaches who would make it a point to score a touchdown with a minute left, already up 17.

Interesting that Swanstrom went the same way with no prior history against Romo.

As I said above, I don't have a problem with the call. There's a minute left. The other team is going to get the ball back and I expect Yale to play to the final whistle. Going for it on fourth down is acceptable in that circumstance.

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[> [> [> [> [> Subject: Re: What's the proper play call when...


Author:
sparman
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Date Posted: 17:39:53 09/30/24 Mon

https://www.espn.com/college-football/playbyplay/_/gameId/401628374

GA tried and failed at 2PT following 3Q TD (@ 11:26). Had they kicked the EP, then when they scored their final TD in 4Q, they could have achieved their desired 3-point lead with the conventional EP.

Now, if things had played out the same way, they still would have needed a TD to catch AL (because they would have trailed by 5 or maybe 6 points) after the final AL score, but such a TD would have given them the lead without having to convert another 2PT. And of course they still would have had to avoid the final INT. But I would rather be driving to score a go-ahead TD, than a mere tying TD that would have required OT or another 2PT to get the lead, which I will consider the next time I am coaching against AL.

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[> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: What Should You Do When Down 30-3 at Halftime?


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 21:03:18 09/30/24 Mon

Let's put Saturday night into context. Georgia coming all the way back from down 28-0 was the largest comeback *ever* in a game between two Top 5 teams. It was the largest comeback ever for the Georgia program (previous = 25).

And the Bulldogs lost.

Here's the way that I would look at the 30-3 halftime deficit if I were Kirby Smart. And like you, sparman, I don't expect to be offered the job but, like you I presume, if offered, I will accept.

I'm down 27 points. That's a four-score deficit if I KICK after each of my four touchdowns. It's *still* a four-score deficit if I successfully convert all four TRIES, so there's no benefit to TRYing for two except for the scenario where I score three touchdowns, convert all three TRIES and kick a tying field goal while holding Alabama scoreless in the second half.

What if I realistically assume that Alabama will score at least one more touchdown in the second half?

In that scenario, my starting halftime deficit is 34 points. That's a five-score deficit if I KICK after every score. It's still a five-score deficit if I successfully convert all five of my two-point TRIES. Again, there is no benefit if I expect to catch up solely with touchdowns.

There's only a benefit if I convert three or four TRIES after my four touchdowns and then kick a tying or winning field goal.

Taking all of the above together, I would not have started going for two right after my first touchdown in the third quarter.

Are there any antecedents in Ivy League football where a team came back from down 28?

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[> [> [> [> [> [> [> Subject: 21 is Dartmouth's biggest comeback


Author:
Go Green
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Date Posted: 08:37:42 10/01/24 Tue


https://dartmouthsports.com/news/2017/10/7/211671841.aspx

I'm sure most people remember this game more as the impetus for the Ivy adopting instant replay the following year.

When Yale thinks they've gotten screwed, then changes happen.

:)

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[> [> [> [> Subject: Seahawks Go For 2 When Down 8


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 22:25:52 09/30/24 Mon

Seattle just scored a touchdown to pull within 8 against the Lions. The Seahawks went for two.

Northbounder's once shockingly novel approach is going mainstream.

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