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Subject: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 22:42:31 10/19/25 Sun

Princeton just announced that, beginning the 2028 admissions cycle, the school will require the SAT or ACT scores of undergraduate applicants.

Not sure why, having made the decision to change, you'd wait until 2028, but whatever. . . .

I believe that this leaves Columbia as the only Ivy which will continue to be test optional, and I will leave it up to our Lion posters to confirm or correct me.

Why is this important?

Well, it obviously affects how each of our eight schools select and aim to attract their students. "Test optional" sends the message that we as an institution do not feel that standardized test scores are a meaningful data point to the point where we would require them.

This is a major change in policy, kicked off by the new administration at Dartmouth (not quite so new now), which bravely went against the orthodoxy went it announced that, not only are SAT scores meaningful, they are the best predictor colleges have in terms of which students will thrive academically. That is a sea change in the slide away from test scores which began before the pandemic and then reached a crescendo during Covid.

How does this impact Ivy sports?

I don't know how the conference overall as well as individual schools can calculate a meaningful Academic Index distribution curve when obviously it's the lowest scoring applicants who are most likely not to submit their scores.

If you can't calculate a meaningful distribution curve, how do you determine where one standard deviation lands? If you can't determine where one standard deviation below the mean (really probably the median, given the asymmetric truncation of the curve at the top end) is, how do you set your floor for athletic recruits?

Logically, if Columbia is the only Ivy to remain test optional after Princeton changes its policy, Columbia should have a *HIGHER* AI threshold and its entire AI distribution curve should be shifted to the right. This would make it *HARDER* for Lion coaches to recruit their athletes, because fewer of their star athletes will qualify academically.

Now, Columbia University infamously has a long history of gaming their numbers and mis-reporting their SAT thresholds. I suspect that remaining test optional is another element of that strategy. When you're test optional, your reported scores go *UP*.

But this hurts Lion sports teams.

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Replies:
[> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
Son of Eli
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Date Posted: 06:49:16 10/20/25 Mon

You’re assuming standardized test scores are still included in a school’s AI calculations when they are optional. Are you sure of that? I would think to accurately calculate AI you would need to have the same inputs for all students.
[> [> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 10:13:18 10/20/25 Mon

SoE, your point is exactly my point, namely, "to accurately calculate AI, you would need to have the same inputs for all students."

And yes, standardized test scores *ARE* still 2/3 of the AI calculation for students, even when some applicants do not supply those same scores. That's my point -- and yours.
[> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
sparman
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Date Posted: 07:51:02 10/20/25 Mon

"Not sure why, having made the decision to change, you'd wait until 2028, but whatever."

Perhaps the fact that some athletic recruiting "commitments" for class incoming in 2027 has something to do with it.
[> [> Subject: Woof, Woof


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 10:19:21 10/20/25 Mon

You might be right, sparman.

That's the athletic tail wagging the undergraduate admissions dog, isn't it?

I wonder if an email was circulated among senior Princeton administrators, seeking input about a potential change to requiring SAT scores. And the Tiger AD had to respond, "Uh, seems okay, but can we wait until after we admit [some fantastic running back/point guard/face-off man]?"
[> [> [> Subject: Re: Woof, Woof


Author:
sparman
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Date Posted: 10:40:44 10/20/25 Mon

The lacrosse recruiting class is mostly already set for all colleges, not just Pr, as the 2027 recruiting start date was September 1. Don't know about other sports.
[> [> [> [> Subject: Re: Woof, Woof


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 11:23:19 10/20/25 Mon

Fair point.

Princeton should just come clean and say, "We're going to mandatory test scores effective immediately for the high school class of 2027 -- athletes excepted. If you're on a coach's preferred list, don't worry. You're in."
[> [> [> Subject: Re: Woof, Woof


Author:
joiseyfan
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Date Posted: 12:27:13 10/20/25 Mon

Nah.

For starters, given the discord between application and recruiting years, this only amounts to an 18 month warning. Six months would be really nasty.

Second, whatever applicants have NOT been submitting test scores will now need to get into test prep mode, certainly a two-year effort to do correctly.
[> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
John Harvard (Advanced Notice)
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Date Posted: 11:15:45 10/20/25 Mon

I expect that the delay until the class of 2028 has nothing to do with athletics, and is merely necessary so high school students can plan ahead. Applications for the class of 2028 are submitted in 2027, so applicants (not just athletes) need time to prepare for and take the standardized tests in advance.
[> Subject: Why Columbia Will Stay SAT Test-Optional


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 13:55:07 10/24/25 Fri

Okay, I think that I've figured out at least one reason why Princeton will delay implementation of its new mandatory SAT policy and also why Columbia is for now staying the course as test optional.

And shame on me for not previously recognizing this obvious influence.

When you go test optional, you receive more applications. When you go test mandatory, you receive fewer applications.

Institutions like getting more applications because it makes their admit rate appear lower. And of course the admit rate will mathematically actually be lower, even though the selectivity of any college has less to do with the size of the DENOMINator in its admit rate and more to do with the quality of the applicants in the NUMERator.

After Columbia was caught with their hand in the cookie jar, gaming/faking application and other student body data, its US News ranking fell from #2 to #20.

Now the only Ivy outside the top 15, I see why Columbia is hesitant to return to test mandatory as the other seven Ivies have done or, in the case of Princeton, will do. Columbia wants the extra applications to juice the denominator in their admit rate.

Look at how Harvard's applications skyrocketed when they went test optional and now are receding in the new era of test mandatory:

https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/10/23/admissions-data-class-2029/

Harvard doesn't need the extra applications because they are Harvard. A four percent admit rate looks impressive whether its actually 3.65% last year or 4.18% this year.
[> [> Subject: Re: Why Columbia Will Stay SAT Test-Optional


Author:
Jimbo
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Date Posted: 18:46:31 10/26/25 Sun

US News removed admissions rates from the methodology years ago so this argument doesn't fly.
[> [> [> Subject: The 2023 Changes in US News Methodology


Author:
An Observer
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Date Posted: 10:41:44 10/27/25 Mon

Jimbo,

You are correct that US News dropped admit rate expressed as a numerator/denominator during their 2023 overhaul of the ranking methodology.

On the other hand, Columbia University has for about a decade worn its admit rate as a badge of honor because, for most of that time, the admit rate of Columbia College and the Fu Foundation School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (ignoring the School of General Studies and Barnard College) was lower than that at, say, Yale and Princeton. Indeed, it was the second lowest admit rate in the Ivy League, higher than only that at Harvard.

Columbia and its alumni invested a lot of emotional capital into that statistic, because it reflected pulling even with HYP.

Here's an interesting twist. In 2023, US News made the biggest change to its methodology in two decades. The idea was to de-emphasize variables which reflected prestige to focus even more on student outcomes. The idea was to shake things up and give less of an advantage to HYP, which benefit disproportionately from brand equity.

What was the outcome?

HYP are still on top. It's unclear what the effect of the changes were on Columbia because the methodology change occurred simultaneous to the scandal over gaming student statistics.

Moreover, Princeton -- which has now been ranked #1 for 15 consecutive years and 20 out of the last 22 lists -- has extended its lead over #2 university MIT. Princeton's raw score is set at 100 and, in the current ranking, MIT is at 98, Harvard at 97. Having a 2% advantage in this type of composite average is a pretty remarkable achievement.

The 2023 methodology change didn't hurt HYP. It solidified their lead.
[> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
SpuytenDuyvil76 (C'mon man!)
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 13:45:10 10/27/25 Mon

Dear AO,

You have succeeded in rousing me from the indolent torpor brought on by the relentlessly listless 2025 FB Lions. No echoes up the Hudson Valley to wake old Rip Van Winkle, but the continued pounding on CU is a bit much.

Ya know, Barnard is a separate undergrad institution within CU- they had their chance to merge before Columbia College went co-ed, but decided no.

Harvard has their undergrad degree granting Extension school, one of the best education deals around. Stop beating up on GS.

BTW: apparently the cheatin' ain't helping on the football side of things.

Give it up!
[> [> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
An Observer
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 14:03:09 10/27/25 Mon

Spuyten,

I hear ya. I actually do.

Barnard is a separate institution, legally and emotionally. Harvard does indeed have a large extension school, so CU is not the only Ivy with commuters taking classes alongside residential students.

We all know that the real benefit from going to an Ivy League institution is not the education, as good as it can be for a hard-working and inquisitive student. The real benefit is the piece of paper you get and the people you meet.

Well, a signficant minority of the people you'll meet as a student at Columbia College are GS commuters and Barnard students. They're not idiots and, indeed, they'll offer some perspectives you don't get from the preppie out of Exeter sitting on the other side of you.

Having said that, you'll still meet all kinds of amazing people from CC and SEAS, plus many from the GS and BC.

In terms of why I get a little riled up over the topic, I've been posting on this board for two decades that Columbia has been cooking the books. When the CU professor wrote his white paper three years ago saying as much, I felt vindicated.

But in terms of sports, I agree with you. The academic shenanigans does not help the sports teams. Indeed, it has the opposite effect.
[> Subject: Re: How Can You Map a School or Conference AI Distribution without All the Test Scores?


Author:
IvySportsJunkie
[ Edit | View ]

Date Posted: 15:17:15 10/27/25 Mon

I am a big supporter of the Ivy League using its rich resources to offer classes for non-traditional students.

Five of our campus offer such programs: Harvard Extension School, Columbia School of General Studies, Yale Eli Whitney Students Program, Brown Resumed Undergraduate Education and U Penn College of Liberal and Professional Studies. Only Harvard does not allow their non-traditional extension students to participate on sports teams. Harvard has nearly 100% acceptance rate for its 800 mostly part-time undergraduate extension students (90% of whom need to work). Columbia’s School of General Studies has nearly 30% acceptance rate for its 2,300 undergraduate non-traditional students. Yale and Brown have tiny, very selective programs with only 23 accepted non-traditional students at Yale and 33 accepted non-traditional students at Brown. I was not able to identify statistics on the U Penn College of Liberal and Professional Studies non-traditional students.

While these non-traditional programs are making very positive contributions to our communities, it does not appear that any of our campuses are using this as a path to improve our sports teams.


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