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Date Posted: 11:31 09/11/24 Sat
Author: Two-Bob Man
Author Host/IP: NoHost / 110.144.17.202
Subject: Many did suggest the "5 year until Finals" post the 2020 season
In reply to: Pieman 's message, "Not quite" on 10:41 09/11/24 Sat

I agree with what you're saying, but there's so much variability in the way teams have amassed their lists, and Grand Finals are won by teams exhibiting so much variance in the way their lists have been assembled, that trying to identify the nuances to "success" are futile.

Two clubs that were expected to have falled significantly away from Flag contention due to the age of their lists have won two of the last three Flags.

Carlton, I agree with you, look to have a list profile that, should they not succeed next year, would still have a couple of years with their current core list available for successive attempts at a Flag.

However, the issue for Carlton, I believe, is that they would also be bursting at salary cap level, so they still need to work around how to keep a critical player like De Koning from being enticed away with a much better contract offer from elsewhere.

And their contracted players - as we have seen with the AFL in recent times - means nothing to their risk of losing a gun player (or at least, even having a level of "disenfranchisement" exhibited among the playing list)

This happens to many teams, even if they have great playing lists and - at one point in time - a seemingly "united" disposition.

Think Melbourne. Think Western Bulldogs.

The cautionary tale for Collingwood - at this very point in time - will be to learn from the capitulation of the West Coast Eagles after their 2018 success to where they have been for the last 3 seasons.

Can we avoid duplicating that very same scenario and outcome?

TBM

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