| Subject: Re: Use this for some balance sheet work----info Stockhouse. |
Author:
Steve Bonkers
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Date Posted: 03:46:46 01/24/02 Thu
In reply to:
Steve Bonkers.
's message, "Use this for some balance sheet work----info Hotcopper" on 05:53:54 01/01/02 Tue
MegaBastard (ID#: 322967) RE: AT 39C /ERG HAS MARKET CAP OF $332M 24/1/02 1:30:00 PM 4674449
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Odysey, current forecasted profit I have access to for 2002 is as follows. Please note, shares outstanding after rights issues and allotment of some of Motorolas notes should be 848,881,789. This is the figure I am using to calculate EPS. I am using share price of 39 cents to calculate PE multiple.
Aspect Financial: Profit 15-20Mill, EPS 1.77 - 2.36, PE 22 - 16.5
ShareAnalysis: Profit 15 Mill, EPS 1.77, PE 22
InvestorWeb: Profit 23 Mill, EPS 2.70, PE 14.4
All recommend as a buy but you need to follow your own trading discipline and analysis before thinking of buying. Remember this is a spec stock and earnings will fluctuate until they have developed a recurring revenue base.
Hope this helps.
Best RGDs
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MegaBastard (ID#: 322967) RE: surrealist oddysey be careful 23/1/02 4:00:01 PM 4669276
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Odysey, ERG is a Spec stock albeit of much higher quality than say a DVT. When ERG wins a contract they win the whole city they are tendering for just not a building.
Because the nature of their business is primarily based on winning tenders intitially it is difficult to accurately determine profit and cashflow from one period to another. We need to rely on a combination of historical performance, known open tenders and management updates. Huntley, in Aspect Financials said they are expecting $6 Billion in tenders over the next year which ERG is a participant in.
From purely a traders point of view focusing on price action alone and not fundamentals or potential ERG should be bought only when it brakes this downtrend move.
Best RGDs
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MegaBastard (ID#: 322967) RE: surrealist oddysey be careful 23/1/02 3:35:26 PM 4669155
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Surrealist, it's impossible to say why he has departed. Only the Financial Controller and the Senior Mgmnt team no the real story and they are all being very diplomatic about it, which you would expect. I used to be a CFO of a major US multinational and using my knowledge of how these things work and based on the Financial Controller only being there 5 mths and importantly recruited from outside ERG, my best guess would be that his style didn't fit in with the ERG culture so they've decided to part company.
These things happen and no matter how good the reference checking may be, you really don't find out what someone's style is like until you work with them for a while. This of course doesn't mean that the Controller is wrong or the company was wrong they just didn't match.
If this is all there is to the story then you would have to think that this is not a justifiable reason for the selloff. As far as insolvency goes, after the rights issue ERG should have another 100M in the bank which should have now reduced there net bebt to no worse than 200M with plenty of short term funds to met the gross debt committments of about 300M. Unless of course they've spent all the money in the last few weeks on something i'm not aware of.
Good luck & best RGDS
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