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Thursday, November 14, 04:55:13am [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4 ]

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Date Posted: Tuesday, November 12, 04:42:33pm
Author: Jungle J
Author Host/IP: cpc124440-croy27-2-0-cust52.19-2.cable.virginm.net / 77.101.86.53
Subject: Part 1 inside
In reply to: Jungle J 's message, "Are Fulham good for their place in 7th?" on Tuesday, November 12, 04:37:06pm

Every week I like to take a look at the Expected Points table on Understat and see who looks like they’re over or under-performing their underlying shot numbers at the moment. To my shock, after a couple of bad Manchester City performances, we have this...
Yes, Fulham are ahead of Man City on expected points based on Understat’s model. There seems to be a pretty big discrepancy between Understat and StatsBomb at the moment — SB has Fulham at 16.46 xG for to Understat’s 21.67, with the biggest gap coming on shots by striker Raúl Jiménez.

I do not think Fulham are actually better than Man City. But SB still has the Cottagers on a very good +0.28 xG differential per 90, about the same as Arsenal. I gave FBRef a look to see if it might point me in the right direction, but surprise, it’s between Understat and StatsBomb on both the xG differential and Jiménez’s xG.

I’d have to do more digging than I had time to over the last couple days to figure out exactly what the discrepancy is, and who’s closer to being accurate, but everyone’s numbers agree that Fulham are A Good Team.

Fulham still have the same manager as last season, and are not meaningfully stylistically different. But the addition of Emile Smith Rowe + Jiménez and Adama Traore getting fully fit after starting their Fulham careers slowly seems to have significantly improved the team’s press and what they do after winning the ball. High press and counter-attacking shots are way up for the Cottagers this season.

The bigger improvement has come defensively, where Fulham are much better in all phases of the game so far this season. I’m concerned that this could be schedule-related — they haven’t played Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea or Tottenham yet this season — but Fulham are getting the job done against similar budget/talent opponents.

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  • Part 2 inside -- Jungle J, Tuesday, November 12, 04:45:07pm (cpc124440-croy27-2-0-cust52.19-2.cable.virginm.net/77.101.86.53)
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