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Thursday, May 15, 12:23:40pm [ Login ] [ Contact Forum Admin ] [ Main index ] [ Post a new message ] [ Search | Check update time | Archives: 1, 2, 3, 4 ]

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Date Posted: Friday, May 09, 04:42:46pm
Author: eganonoa
Author Host/IP: pool-108-18-149-21.washdc.fios.verizon.net / 108.18.149.21
Subject: Time to replace Leno?

I think it might be time to say goodbye to Leno. There have been good arguments made on here that our No. 1 priority signing of the summer would be a set-piece coach. It could be argued that our second priority should be a new keeper. Here are three goalkeeping stats that help make that argument:

1. Post-Shot Expected Goals - Goals Allowed: A convoluted stat, but the gist is you look at how many goals would have been expected to have been scored and subtract the actual number of goals scored. By this metric, we're 2.5 goals worse off because of Leno's shot stopping this year. We're 5th worst, down with the relegation clubs and two clubs who have massively under-performed this year: Brighton and Wolves (the two worst). By contrast Bournemouth are right at the top, miles ahead of everyone else, with their goalie stopping 10 goals that were expected to be scored! Other clubs that are doing well from their goalie include Forest and Palace.

2. Crosses Stopped %age -- This is the percentage of crosses into the penalty areas which were successfully stopped by the goalie. We are 3rd worst here, with only West Ham and Forest with keepers less able to stop shots as poorly as Leno. He's successfully stopped just 4.3% of crosses. By contract the likes of Arsenal and Villa are up at 12.8% and 10.5% respectively, probably one reason they do so well at defending set-pieces.

3. Defensive Actions Outside the Penalty Area ("Sweeper Actions") -- This is the keeper acting as a sweeper. We've all talked at length this week about Andersen's biggest weakness, his pace, and the need to have someone to cover him. Well Leno is absolutely not helping here! We rank 4th worst in the league, with Leno contributing just 0.8 such actions per 90 minutes. By contrast, Newcastle (1.91), Arsenal (1.71) and Bournemouth (1.69) keepers are giving them twice what we are getting from Leno.

Overall our defense ranks 3rd in the league in Expected Goals Against (the number of goals we would be expected to concede) and a big chunk of that appears to come from Leno. The sad thing is that this appears to not just be a one-off poor season, but a steady decline from him. In 2022/23 he had a Post-Shot Expected Goals of +9.1, meaning he stopped 9.1 more goals than expected, and we ranked 1st in the league in this metric. Last season we dropped to the middle in this metric, letting in 1.3 more goals than expected. In 2022/23 we ranked in the upper middle of the league in crosses stopped percentage, stopping 7.6% of crosses. Then last season we dropped to 2nd bottom with just 4.0%, around where we are today. Similarly, in 2022/23 we ranked in the upper-middle of the pack in goalie sweeper actions with 1.26 per 90, dropping to the lower-middle with 1.05 per 90 last season, before cratering to the bottom this season.

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