| Subject: Thursday Update |
Author:
Titan Eric
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Date Posted: 10:36:14 03/13/03 Thu
In reply to:
Titan Eric
's message, "Here is the latest..." on 19:45:44 03/12/03 Wed
1. For non-subcribers, www.collegerpi.com provides an RPI update only weekly. For subcribers, the RPI ratings are updated daily. If anyone has an subcription to www.collegerpi.com, please let me know.
2. Last season's numbers
The last three teams -
UNC-Greensboro 112
Wagner 116
Manhattan 129
65 (NCAA teams)
+ 40 (NIT teams)
_____
105
+ 10 (ineligble teams with an RPI better than 112)
_____
115
- 9 (NCAA auto bid teams having an RPI worse than 112)
_____
106
+ 8 ("skipped" teams having an RPI better than 112)
_____
114
Thus, except for the NY school rule exception, the top 114 RPI teams were dancing in either the NCAA or NIT.
3. This season's numbers:
65 (NCAA teams)
+ 40 (ASSUMING NIT teams)
_____
105
+ 6 (ineligble teams with an RPI better than 112)
_____(5 more teams may become ineligble)
111
- 6 (NCAA auto bid teams having an RPI worse than 112)
_____
105
+ ? ("skipped" teams having an RPI better than 112)
_____
???
First, I can't "see" any eligible teams having a worse RPI than the Titans (112) for whom the NIT would "skip" the Titans. Look for Big 6 teams (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, SEC, or Pac 10 teams) or "local" NY teams. Nebraska and Kansas St. are below .500 and not eligible. Manhattan, Wagner, St. Johns, and Syracuse are already dancing in either NCAA or NIT. UMass and St. Bon. are ineligible. I wonder if the NIT, would "skip" the Titans for G. Mason, S. Fla., or Niagra?
Second, schools having an RPI better than 112 that may get skipped for whatever reason:
72 College of Charleston (skipped last year at 89)
81 Fairfield and 109 Siena (would the NIT take two MAAC teams?)
106 Nevada (skipped last year at 107)
113 New Mexico St. (skipped last year at 95 - would the NIT take two Sun Belt teams with La.-Lafayette at 73)
102 Mercer?
84 Drexel?
98 Baylor?
99 Colorado St.?
Third, it would help to have:
Holy Cross win the Patroit
Ole Miss to lose today or tomorrow
South Carolina to lose today or tomorrow
Temple to lose today or tomorrow
Fla. St. to lose today or tomorrow
Utah St. or UC-Irvine to win the Big West
Boston to win the American East
No MAJOR upsets in ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Conf USA, MAC, Mnt. West, Pac 10, SEC, and WAC. We want a team with an RPI of 112 or better to win each of these conference tournaments, which is possible and, in most cases, probable.
If the number of ineligible teams rises to 11 and the number of NCAA auto bid teams having an RPI worse than 112 stays at 6. The "magic number" is then 110 and our chances of an NIT bid are VERY GOOD. However, as of today the magic number is 105 and I would say our chances are LESS THAN 50-50.
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