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Author:
Titan Eric
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Date Posted: 19:45:44 03/12/03 Wed
First, after following the NIT selections for the past several years, it is my ASSUMPTION that the NIT primarily uses the RPI to select teams. If anyone believes otherwise please let me know why....
Second, someone asked the question what was the highest RPI for an NIT team last season.
Answer: The three highest RPI teams were...
UNC-Greensboro 112,
Wagner 116, and
Manhattan 129.
The selection of the 116 and 129 teams is not available to the Titans, as both Wagner and Manhattan are NY schools invited to the NY NIT. That's cool...
Further data from last season (2002 NIT)
10 teams (Arkansas, Tennessee, Ga. Tech, Providence, Purdue, Auburn, UMass, Nebraska, Washington, and St. Louis) having an RPI better than 112 were ineligible for the NIT as they had overall records under .500.
9 teams (Fla. Atlantic, UIC, Murray St., Boston U., Holy Cross, Montana, Alcorn St. , Winthrop, and Siena) having an RPI worse than 112 earned NCAA automatic bids.
8 teams (G-town, VCU, College of Charleston, New Mexico St., Ill. St., UL-Monroe, Nevada, and Pacific) having an RPI better than 112 were not invited to (or skipped by) the NIT. G-town is the only team since Louisville in 1987 to DECLINE an NIT bid. It was reported that G-town could not get a home NIT game because their home court (the MCI Center) was being used for first round NCAA games and that they were not interested in traveling to the west coast for a first round NIT game as their players would miss too much class. All other 7 teams were NOT INVITED. VCU had just changed coaches after the conference tournament. Of interesting note -- the College of Charleston was "skipped" for the second year in a row by the NIT. In 2002, C of C had an RPI of 89 and was skipped. In 2001, C of C had an RPI of 100 and was left home. I wonder if there is "bad feelings" between the NIT and C of C? Currently, C of C has an RPI of 72. If they were "skipped" again this year, that would make another NIT spot open for Detroit.
Third, comparison data so far this season:
Good thing: Wagner and Manhattan have NCAA auto bids.
5 teams having an RPI of 112 or better are already ineligible for an NIT invitation:
6 Georgia [post season ban],
59 Michigan [post season ban],
71 Fresno St. [post season ban],
86 Charlotte [below .500], and
97 West Virginia [below .500].
6 other teams having an RPI of 112 or better may also be out of the post season:
77 South Carolina (must win four games to be NIT eligible)
83 Fla. St. (must win two games to be NIT eligible)
94 Ole Miss (must win two games to be NIT eligible)
96 Arkansas 9-18 (must win conference tourney for auto NCAA)
100 Vandy 10-17 (must win conference tourney for auto NCAA)
104 Temple (must win two games to be NIT eligible)
Thus, compared to last season's 10 ineligible teams, there may be up to 11 ineligible teams in the top 112 RPI this season.
6 teams having an RPI greater than 112 have already secured auto NCAA bids:
127 East Tenn.
175 IUPUI
185 UNC-Asheville
SWAC Champ (t.b.d. - all teams are higher than 112)
MEAC Champ (t.b.d. - all teams are higher than 112)
American East (t.b.d. - both teams in final are higher than 112)
Last year, 9 teams took NCAA bids out of the top 112 RPI.
How many top 112 RPI teams will be "skipped" by the NIT this season? It's anyone's guess.
CONCLUSION:
To improve Detroit's chances for an NIT bid, we need conf. tournament wins from:
45 Weber St. (tonight),
61 Holy Cross (Friday),
49 CMU, 79 WMU, or 82 Kent St. (to win MAC), and
95 Utah St. or 105 UC-Irvine (to win Big West).
Further, we need losses (see above) by Arkansas, Vandy, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Temple, and Fla. St.
Analyzing the numbers, the Titans are definately on the "NIT Bubble". With a few exceptions, the NIT does like to have rather "local" first round match-ups. For example, an earlier post indicated that the NIT had already contacted UIC and DePaul about a first round NIT match-up this season.
ADVANTAGEOUS MATCH-UPS:
It is possible that the "last-in" teams will be selected with an eye towards a "local" match-up. I believe the NIT attempts to avoid plane fares as much as possible. Teams which the Titans could match-up "locally" with include possibly Ohio State, Kent State, Valpo, Western Mich, and Central Mich.
Valpo took an NIT slot away from us by losing in the Mid-Con final. But they now provide a "local" match-up. Does anyone know Valpo's home attendance? Could they draw enough for a first round NIT home game?
Both Kent State and Ohio State could probably get home first round NIT games. Unfortunately, perhaps the NIT will like a Kent St v. Ohio St match-up better than Kent St v. Detroit or Ohio St. v. Detroit.
With regard to West. Mich. v. Detroit, I can't believe either team would get a first round home game and, thus, I can't see either team helping the other.
The good thing about CMU is that (1) they could get a first round home game (I believe there attendance is good), (2) they can't get matched with either Kent or Western, and (3) if the NIT is looking for a bubble opponent to travel to Rose Arena, the Titans are the closest!!
I wonder if the NIT is "sour" on G-town at 101 because they declined an invitation last year?? I wonder if the NIT is "sour" on Nova at 66 because of the suspensions which limit the team to 7 dressed players for each game??
Tell me what U think......
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